Esri Market Potential methodology
Esri creates a Market Potential dataset for the United States. This topic describes the methodology used to create that data.
Tip:
Esri also provides a copy of this topic as a technical paper: 2026 Esri Market Potential methodology (PDF).
A summary of the updates to methodology in this release
Esri's 2026 Market Potential data measures the likely demand for a product or service in an area, as well as expected consumer attitudes about topics such as spending, health, and the environment.
The database includes an estimate of the expected number of consumers and a Market Potential Index (MPI) for each item. The MPI compares the demand for a specific product or service in an area with the national demand for that product or service. The MPI values at the U.S. level are 100, representing overall demand. A value of more than 100 represents higher demand, and a value of less than 100 represents lower demand. For example, an index value of 120 implies that demand in an area is likely to be 20 percent higher than the U.S. average; an index value of 85 implies that demand is 15 percent lower.
How Esri calculates market potential
Esri estimates market potential by combining third-generation ArcGIS Tapestry segmentation data with the Survey of the American Consumer, a 2025 Doublebase data product from MRI-Simmons. The 2025 Doublebase integrates information from four consumer survey waves covering the time period March 2023 through April 2025. Each survey respondent can be identified by Tapestry segment, so a rate of consumption by Tapestry segment can be determined for a product or service for a given area.
The Expected Number of Consumers (households or adults) for a product or service in an area is computed by applying the consumption rate for Tapestry market segment n to households or adults in the area belonging to Tapestry segment n and summing across 60 Tapestry segments.
The Percentage of Consumers, or Local Consumption Rate, for a product or service for an area is computed as the ratio of the expected number of consumers for a product or service in the area to the total households or adults in the area.
The MPI for a product or service for an area is the ratio of the local consumption rate for a product or service for the area to the U.S. consumption rate for the product or service, multiplied by 100.
Note that Market Potential product codes include an a or h following the first five digits to indicate a consumer base of adults or households, respectively.
Market Potential Update
Esri's 2026 Market Potential database incorporates third-generation Tapestry Segmentation data with new and revised items from the 2025 Doublebase consumer surveys to provide a fresh outlook on local consumer preferences. The 2026 database contains more than 3,650 items, grouped into the following thematic categories:
| Automobiles & Other Vehicles | Garden/Lawn & Tools | Media - Magazines & Newspapers | Psychographics & Media |
| Automotive Products & Maintenance | Groceries | Media - Radio & Other Audio | Psychographics & Shopping |
| Baby Products | Grocery Shopping | Media - TV Viewing | Restaurants |
| Books & Cards | Health | Media - Yellow Pages | Shoes |
| Beverage Consumption (Alcohol) | Home Improvement & Services | Personal Care Products & Services | Shopping |
| Civic Activities & Political Affiliation | Household Furnishings & Appliances | Pets & Products | Smoking |
| Clothing & Accessories | Household Products | Phones & Service | Sports |
| Convenience Stores | Insurance | Psychographics & Advertising | Toys & Games |
| Electronics | Internet | Psychographics & Food | Travel |
| Finances | Leisure Activities/Lifestyle | Psychographics & Lifestyle |
The Esri 2026 Market Potential update adds more than 100 new items to the above categories, including the following:
Exercise frequency
Fantasy sports participation
Major sports fan designation
Number of coupons used
Number of prescription drugs filled
Total number of pets owned
Views toward podcasts and social media
Where mobile phone was purchased
Estimates for the television show type variables have been redefined. These variables now measure cumulative viewership rather than average audience viewership. This change markedly increases the consumption rates for the affected variables to reflect what should be a more relevant and expected measurement.
Note that there are two primary reasons why an item is dropped from the Market Potential database:
The Survey of the American Consumer no longer includes the item in the survey questionnaire.
The item failed a statistical test for minimum sample size. In many cases, a thematically similar new item is created by rebinning the data (for example, combining quantities, expenditure ranges, and so on to increase sample size).
The 2026 Market Potential update includes a glossary of abbreviations and acronyms used in the item descriptions.