Esri Retail Demand by Industry methodology
Esri provides a Retail Demand by Industry dataset for the United States based on source material from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This topic describes the methodology used to create that data.
Tip:
Esri also provides a copy of this topic as a technical paper: Esri Retail Demand by Industry 2026 methodology (PDF).
A summary of the updates to methodology in this release
The Retail Demand by Industry database represents an extension to Esri's 2026 Consumer Spending (by product and service) estimates. Spending is estimated for all 12 three-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) subsectors in Retail Trade (44-45) plus the Food Services & Drinking Places subsector (722). In addition, the data is available for 30 four-digit NAICS industry groups to provide additional detailed insights.
Note:
Industry definitions used in this product are based on the 2017 NAICS coding structure. More information about this taxonomy can be found on the U.S. Census NAICS website.
While Esri's Consumer Spending dataset provides a broad list of what households are likely to spend their budget dollars on, Retail Demand by Industry highlights where they are likely to spend it. In all, these estimates provide an alternative view of spending potential based on the industries where such market transactions may occur.
Current year spending—The core of the methodology starts with Esri's current year spending potential estimates by product and service. These estimates are modeled from the Interview and Diary survey data in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Survey, ArcGIS Tapestry, and current Esri household income estimates. For more information describing Esri's product-oriented database, refer to the Consumer Spending methodology.
Retail Demand by Industry is based on a subset of retail and related products captured in Esri's Retail Goods product summary variable (X15001) in the Consumer Spending database. Industry estimates are modeled using a product-to-industry crosswalk from the 2017 Economic Census Products by Industry tables based on the North American Product Classification System published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The crosswalk links a portion of product expenditures to industries beyond NAICS 44-45 and 722. Therefore, spending associated with out-of-scope industries is not reported in Retail Demand, which means total industry expenditures will not equate to X15001 in the Consumer Spending database.
Retail Demand by Industry includes annual total industry expenditures, annual average industry potential spending per household, and an industry-specific Spending Potential Index (SPI). The total industry expenditures value represents the potential aggregate spending by all households within an industry in an area.
The SPI compares the average potential spending locally within an industry to the average potential spending nationally in that same industry. An index of 100 reflects the average. An SPI of 120 indicates that average potential spending by local consumers is 20 percent above the national average.
It serves to remind data users of the limited scope of the BLS survey data used as the primary input to develop spending potential estimates. For example, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis covers a broad range of the U.S. population, source data, and spending channels, while the BLS survey is based on a sample of the civilian noninstitutionalized population in households. Therefore, Esri's estimates of goods and services do not represent a measure of market size. They instead should be analyzed as a measure of budget allocation. Specifically, given the income of a typical household in an area, Esri's potential expenditure by product provides the expected distribution of annual budget dollars attributable across more than 600 spending categories.
NAICS industry codes and definitions
The Retail Demand by Industry data is available by Esri's geographic summary areas and for custom areas using the ArcGIS GeoEnrichment Service to apportion the data to polygons of any size and shape. Data is reported for the following NAICS industry subsectors and groups with industry code:
| Industry code | Definition |
|---|---|
| 441 | Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers |
| 4411 | Automobile Dealers |
| 4412 | Other Motor Vehicle Dealers |
| 4413 | Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores |
| 442 | Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores |
| 4421 | Furniture Stores |
| 4422 | Home Furnishings Stores |
| 443, 4431 | Electronics and Appliance Stores |
| 444 | Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers |
| 4441 | Building Material and Supplies Dealers |
| 4442 | Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores |
| 445 | Food and Beverage Stores |
| 4451 | Grocery Stores |
| 4452 | Specialty Food Stores |
| 4453 | Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores |
| 446, 4461 | Health and Personal Care Stores |
| 447, 4471 | Gasoline Stations |
| 448 | Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores |
| 4481 | Clothing Stores |
| 4482 | Shoe Stores |
| 4483 | Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores |
| 451 | Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores |
| 4511 | Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores |
| 4512 | Book Stores and News Dealers |
| 452 | General Merchandise Stores |
| 4522 | Department Stores |
| 4523 | General Merchandise Stores, including Warehouse Clubs, Supercenters |
| 453 | Miscellaneous Store Retailers |
| 4531 | Florists |
| 4532 | Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores |
| 4533 | Used Merchandise Stores |
| 4539 | Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers |
| 454 | Non-store Retailers |
| 4541 | Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses |
| 4542 | Vending Machine Operators |
| 4543 | Direct Selling Establishments |
| 722 | Food Services & Drinking Places |
| 7223 | Special Food Services |
| 7224 | Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) |
| 7225 | Restaurants and Other Eating Places |